What CAN'T computers do?

Not too long ago, there was a relatively long list of things machines couldn't do by themselves: play chess, read legal briefs, translate poetry, vacuum floors, drive cars, etc. But that list is getting shorter and shorter every year. The latest casualty may be writing newspaper articles.

Kris Hammond and Larry Birnbaum at Northwestern's Intelligent Information Laboratory have started a company called Narrative Science which does just that. Here's a sample, produced with 60 seconds of the end of the third quarter of a recent football game:

“WISCONSIN appears to be in the driver’s seat en route to a win, as it leads 51-10 after the third quarter. Wisconsin added to its lead when Russell Wilson found Jacob Pedersen for an eight-yard touchdown to make the score 44-3 ... . ”

According to Steve Lohr, in the New York Times:

The Narrative Science software can make inferences based on the historical data it collects and the sequence and outcomes of past games. To generate story “angles,” explains Mr. Hammond of Narrative Science, the software learns concepts for articles like “individual effort,” “team effort,” “come from behind,” “back and forth,” “season high,” “player’s streak” and “rankings for team.” Then the software decides what element is most important for that game, and it becomes the lead of the article, he said. The data also determines vocabulary selection. A lopsided score may well be termed a “rout” rather than a “win.”

He ends his article with a prediction by Dr. Hammond:

“In five years,” he says, “a computer program will win a Pulitzer Prize — and I’ll be damned if it’s not our technology.”

That may be a bit ambitious, but one nearly-certain prediction is that computer power will increase by roughly 10-fold in the next five years, and by 100-fold within a decade.

You can also be sure that journalism won't be the only job affected.

Can Digital Technologies Replace Superstars?

Japan's newest pop star, Aimi Eguchi, is a digital creation.



For the past couple of decades, digital technologies have been responsible for skill biased technical change, automating and replacing routine, low-skill work while augmenting the demand for more skilled workers. Bank tellers, clerks and assembly line workers were early targets of automation, while rock stars and CEOs benefited from being able to scale their efforts.

The incomes of superstars have skyrocketed while median wages have stagnated.


However, there's nothing inevitable about technologies only being used to replace low-wage work. Pop stars, actors, artists, writers, mathematicians, chess grandmasters have all been targets of automation. In many ways, expert knowledge is easier to codify than common sense. In principle, every profession is potentially vulnerable as digital technologies, robotics and artificial intelligence advance.

There will be increasing disruption in the economy as businesses restructure, and employment, wages, and incomes re-align to the new reality.

Which sectors do you think will be most affected in the next 10 years. Which professions, other than b-school professors, are relatively immune for the time being?

Google is putting the "auto" into automobile.

If the last big revolution was replacing muscle power with machines, the next one is automating and augmenting more mental tasks. Henry Ford and compatriots replaced the horse, now Google is working to replace the driver.

According to John Markoff in the New York Times, their self-driving cars have now logged over 140,000 miles on California roads, including highway 1 between L.A. and San Francisco. They are now lobbying Nevada to allow these cars on public roads.

The project leader, Dr. Sebastian Thrun has argued that robotic vehicles would increase energy efficiency, reduce road injuries and deaths, and cut the number of cars needed in the United States in half.

“What if I could take out my phone and say, ‘Zipcar, come here,’ ” he asked an industry conference last year, “and a moment later the Zipcar came around the

I suspect the biggest barrier to the adoption of self-driving cars is not technological -- these videos show how the systems are rapidly progressing. Instead, the impediments will be regulatory and cultural. There are about 40,000 deaths on the America's roads each year with our human drivers. But suppose the robotic cars were 100 times safer. That would still be 400 deaths per year. Can you imagine the public outcry, no to mention the legal judgments, that would follow the first time a human was killed due to an error by a robotic car? Will they have to be 100% perfect before the are adopted?

Creative AI vs. Mad Men

“..it’s true that it generates fun ads. [But] after this first reaction, they get a little scared,” he said, “when they see that a software program can create the same (mediocre) results in just 10 seconds as several hours of strategic meetings and production.”

That's how the President of Xiberras describes the response to his new "Creative Artificial Intelligence" software that can generate hundreds of thousands ads like the one above. The user gives it a few basic parameters like they demographics of the target audience and the intended benefits of the product and the software does the rest.

It may not compete with Don Draper's creativity (yet) but maybe the more mediocre talents on Madison Avenue should be getting nervous.